The New Contrarian Investing Strategies

Автор(ы):Dreman David
06.10.2007
Год изд.:1998
Описание: Книга показывает инвесторам как переплюнуть профессиональных мани-менеджеров и взять профит из потенциального паники на Wall Street... короче, "фирменный" стиль Дремана, который The New York Times обозвали как "остроумный и чистый как серебрянный колокольчик" (извращенцы!). Dreman показывает проверенный, систематичный и безопасный путь превосходить рынок, покупая акции хороших компаний, пока они не в фаворе. Основная мысль книги - это понимание психологии инветоров, которые имеют свойство слишком остро геагировать на любые отрицательные новости.
Оглавление:
The New Contrarian Investing Strategies — обложка книги.
  Introduction [15]
PART I. WHY CURRENT METHODS DON'T WORK [25]
  1. The Sure Thing Almost Nobody Plays [27]
    On Markets and Odds [28]
    Great Expectations [30]
    The New Conquistadors [34]
    A Titanic Clash [37]
    The Journey Ahead [39]
  2. From Technical Analysis to Astrology [40]
    The Walls Come Tumbling Down [40]
    The First Victory [41]
    Hail the АН-Powerful Chart [42]
    The Star Wars Technicians [43]
    And There's the Fringe [44]
    The Technician's Moment of Truth [45]
    Destroying the Faith [47]
  3. Bigger Game Ahead [48]
    Value Investing [49]
    Assessing Earning Power [50]
    Cash Flow Analysis [50]
    Accounting [51]
    Price-to-Book Value [52]
    Contemporary Value Techniques [53]
    Visions of Sugar Plums [53]
    Why Don't They Work? [55]
    Market Timing and Tactical Asset Allocation [56]
    Momentum [57]
    A Purposeful Random Walk [59]
    The Three Faces of EMH [59]
    The Power of an Idea [62]
PART II. THE EXPERT WAY TO LOSE YOUR SAVINGS [65]
  4. Dangerous Forecasts [67]
    A Portrait of Dorian Guru [68]
    The Difficulties of Forecasting [73]
    Predictable Expert Errors [74]
    The Floor Becomes the Ceiling [75]
    A Multibillion-Dollar Slip in Investment Theory [76]
    Security Analysis—A Mission Impossible? [78]
    How Much Is Too Much? [79]
    A Surefire Way to Lose Money [84]
  5. Would You Play a 1 in 50 Billion Shot? [88]
    The Forecasting Follies [91]
    Missing the Barn Door [93]
    Analyst Forecasts in Booms and Busts [97]
    Was Forecasting in the Past Any Better? [99]
    What Does It All Mean? [100]
    Hey, I'm Special [102]
    Some Causes of Forecasting Errors [102]
    Career Pressures and Forecasts [104]
    Psychological Influences on Analysts'Decisions [107]
    Mr. Inside and Mr. Outside [109]
    The Forecasters' Plague [111]
    Analyst Оverconfidence [114]
  6. Nasty Surprises [117]
    Paying Through the Nose for Growth [118]
    The Many Faces of Surprise [119]
    What the Record Shows [119]
    Toute la Difference [123]
    The Effect of Positive Surprises [124]
    Calling In the Chips [126]
    Pulling the Trigger [129]
    Reinforcing Events [132]
    The Effects of Surprise Over Time [134]
    A Surprising Opportunity [136]
PART III. THE WORLD OF CONTRARIAN INVESTING [1 37]
  7. Contrarian Investment Strategies [139]
    The World Turned Upside Down [140]
    In Visibility We Trust [141]
    In the Beginning ... [142]
    More Nasty, Ugly Little Facts [145]
    Whatever Took So Long? [149]
    The Great Discovery [151]
    The Last Nail [154]
    Summing it Up [158]
  8. Boosting Portfolio Profits [160]
    Strategy # 1: Low P/E [160]
    Strategies #2 and #3: Price-to-Cash Flow and Price-to-Book Value [163]
    Strategy #4: Price-to-Dividend [167]
    Contrarian Stock Selection: A-B-C Rules [169]
    Should We Abandon Security Analysis Entirely? [170]
    An Eclectic Approach [171]
    To the Trenches [174]
    Using the Low P/E Strategy [174]
    The World of GARP [178]
    Using Low Price-to-Cash Flow [178]
    Time for a Miss [181]
    Price-to-Book Value Strategies [182]
    Price-to-Dividend [183]
    A Beneficial Side Effect [186]
    An Overview of the Eclectic Approach [186]
    Owning the Casino [186]
    Walking Away from the Chips [190]
  9. A New, Powerful Contrarian Approach [193]
    Contrarian Strategies Within Industries [194]
    Why Buy the Cheapest Stocks in an Industry? [198]
    The Defensive Team: Part II [200]
    Buy-and-Weed Strategies [201]
    Where Do I Get My Statistics? [202]
    What Contrarian Strategies Won't Do for You [204]
    Alternatives to Contrarian Strategies [204]
    Mutual Funds [204]
    Closed-End Investment Companies [205]
    Foreign Country Funds: Myth and Reality [205]
    When to Sell? [210]
  10. Knowing Your Market Odds [214]
    Improving Your Market Odds [215]
    In Simplification We Believe [215]
    It Ain' t Necessarily So [216]
    The Law of Small Numbers [221]
    A Variation of the Previous Problem [224]
    Regression to the Mean [227]
    If It Looks Good, It Must Taste Good [230]
    On Shark Attacks and Falling Airplane Parts [231]
    Anchoring and Hindsight Biases [233]
    Decisional Biases and Market Fashions [234]
    Shortcuts to Disaster [236]
  11. Profiting from Investor Overreaction [238]
    The Pervasiveness of Investor Overreaction [239]
    Junk Bonds: A Money-Making Overreaction [243]
    Earnings Surprise: Another Profitable Overreaction [245]
    The Investor Overreaction Hypothesis [246]
    Is It a Horse? [248]
    The Dark Side of the Moon [253]
    Other Voices [256]
    Regression to the Mean Revisited [256]
PART IV. INVESTING IN THE 21ST Century [259]
  12. Crisis Investing [261]
    First: Know Your Enemy [261]
    Symptoms of a Crisis [264]
    Essentials for Crisis Investing [266]
    Hedging Your Bets [268]
    Panic [269]
    Value Lifelines in a Crisis [271]
    What Are the Risks of Crisis Investing? [275]
    The Psychology of Risk [277]
  13. An Investment for All Seasons [279]
    Stock Returns Over Time [280]
    The Investment Revolution [285]
    Fighting the Last War [287]
    Enter the Second Horseman [290]
    A New Investment Era [292]
    Investing in Doomsday [292]
    To Sum Up [295]
  14. What Is Risk? [297]
    It Seemed So Simple [297]
    Other Risk Measurements [303]
    The Riskless Investments [303]
    Toward a Realistic Definition of Risk [305]
    Are Stocks More Risky? [305]
    Is There Something Wrong with This Picture? [309]
    A Better Way of Measuring Risk [310]
  15. Small Stocks, Nasdaq, and Other
    Market Pitfalls [316]
    The Small Company Blues [317]
    An Attack on Contrarian Strategies [325]
    We Have a Tie-In to Mecca [327]
    Should You Give Up on Small Stocks? [329]
    Beware of Nasdaq and Small Stock Trading Costs [333]
    The Index Trap [339]
    Tailor-Made Performance Records [341]
PART V. PSYCHOLOGY AND MARKETS [345]
  16. The Zany World of Rationality [347]
    The Former Comrades Meet the Market [348]
    You Can Never Go Wrong in Real Estate [351]
    The Madness of Crowds [354]
    Some Common Features of Manias [355]
    The Characteristics of a Crowd [356]
    The World of Social Reality [357]
    The Reinforcement of Group Opinion [359]
    How Not to Get Rich [361]
    Here We Go Again [365]
    Devastating Changes in Perception [369]
    Not Very Different [369]
  17. Beyond Efficient Markets [373]
    MPT Assumptions Revisited [375]
    Problems, So Many Problems [375]
    The Crisis of Modern Economics [377]
    Correlations Unlimited [380]
    The Vanishing Support for EMH [381]
    Those Dreadful Anomalies [383]
    The Jury Is Out Again [385]
    More of the Same [389]
    Other Evidence Against Efficiency [391]
    A Leap of Faith [392]
    The Problem of Interpreting Information [393]
    Summing It All Up [394]
    Towers Built in Sand [394]
    The New Paradigm [397]
  Appendix A: Modern Portfolio Theory [399]
    The Capital Asset Pricing Model—CAPM [400]
    Assumptions Underlying the Capital Asset Pricing Model [401]
  Appendix B: Contrarian Investment Rules [405]
  Appendix C: Glossary of Terms [411]
  Notes [421]
  Index [449]
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